The autonomous vehicle is regularly talked about with announcements and then with waves of tests and feedback. In recent months, manufacturers have been more cautious and measured on the subject.
What are the 6 levels of vehicle autonomy?
The subject of autonomous cars and trucks is approached from different prisms and does not follow the same relationship to time in terms of deployment.
The evolution towards the autonomous car will materialize by being strongly oriented towards the world of content, particularly that of entertainment as well as towards a “mobility” oriented logic of the MAAS (Mobility As A Service) type.
And what about the autonomous truck?
We can see a different evolution which will be carried, quite logically, towards business-oriented use.
What uses?
To become a credible alternative, the autonomous truck must ultimately be able to carry out three main types of missions, we can distinguish:
- Initially, specific uses in closed environments: intra-site, ports, mines, airports, etc.
- Then secondly, driving on the main roads. The vehicles are driven by “human” drivers until they are placed on expressways/motorways (where autonomous driving is facilitated).
- And finally the most complex stage: delivery in an urban environment which is characterized by a high density between vehicles and human beings, very disparate infrastructures (street furniture, degraded roads, etc.), a heterogeneity of businesses and individuals to deliver which impact the goods transported and therefore the bodywork.
Once these missions have been perfectly mastered, the vehicles can be completely autonomous.
What are the latest experiments known to date in Europe?
- The first tests of driving interconnected trucks in convoys, commonly called platooning, will soon begin in France as soon as the decree authorizing it is published. This model ultimately foreshadows a concrete use of autonomously driven vehicles with gains in consumption, safety and distances traveled (driving times should logically be extended when the vehicle is in automatic mode)
- The Stora Enso group, world leader in paper production, is testing an autonomous truck to perform rotations to transport wood chips. The objective is to measure the environmental, economic and safety benefits.
- The Daimler group, for its part, tests its vehicles for use in snow removal situations at its test center. “More broadly, the technology could initially be used in port or storage operations or even on agricultural operations”
A new value chain and new services?
This is a whole new form of income that will also appear with the provision and updating of software, the provision of content/services and the monetization of the data collected. We now know that decision-makers and users value advice and support in the financing and operation of vehicles. It is likely that they will be an integral part of the new value chain that will be established. The more complex a vehicle is, the more valuable the associated services to optimize its use become.
Ultimately, what are the financing solutions for an autonomous vehicle?
This is a thought that comes up regularly between buying and renting. This last method of financing is of interest in the case of new technological models: it makes it possible, among other things, to secure the choices of decision-makers by allowing the outsourcing of risk management while benefiting, depending on the contracts, from services around the vehicle. This makes it possible to facilitate a view of the TCO (the cost of ownership) around this type of asset. We can further reflect by wondering whether pay per use will have become the benchmark or whether we will remain on a traditional subscription / monthly rent.
How to maintain these vehicles?
A real revolution for years in workshops, vehicles are constantly being modernized. New technologies and energies (gas, electric or even hydrogen, etc.) imply diversifying the skills necessary to manage a fleet of vehicles. Trucks break down less and less often for mechanical reasons but rather for electronic reasons. Today without a diagnostic case you can no longer maintain fleets, even more so if it is multi-brand (multi-generation, etc.). The vehicles are multiplexed, interconnected with numerous related systems added in addition to the original equipment. Tomorrow, autonomous vehicles will push the subject even further. It is imperative to anticipate this change within the framework of forward-looking skills management to support this change in needs in a profession that is already in tension and which is struggling to attract (despite promising prospects).
What are the obstacles/brakes for autonomous vehicles?
- Societal/social acceptability: in a world that is constantly automating there is a technical frontier but there is also a frontier on what society is ready to accept. The latest fatal accidents show that the population is not ready to accept the generalization of autonomous vehicles, there is even talk of anxiety today.
- The human impact: a study estimates that autonomous vehicles would directly threaten the jobs of 2 million Americans. Joseph Schumpeter speaks of “creative destruction” with progress but let’s not forget the people who will be directly impacted. What will be the capacity of our societies to offer retraining to these impacted populations? Likewise, we will always need humans to load and unload a vehicle. The commercial link made by the driver at the time of deliveries remains to be valued, in the long term this will perhaps even be an axis of competitive differentiation.
- Reliability: autonomous driving is a particularly advanced technology. It requires the use of sensors (lidars, radars, etc.) which must be able to operate at all times and in all conditions, perfect mastery of artificial intelligence and a robust infrastructure for exchanging data (5G will make it possible to move forward on the subject).
- Cybercrime: it will be necessary to strengthen IT security around autonomous vehicles. Let us cite three examples of new inherent risks which show the criticality of the subject: mouse jacking, modification/scrambling/misappropriation of data, and finally taking remote control of the vehicle.
- The responsibility : from a regulatory and also insurance point of view, our practices and doctrines are not yet in line with expected developments. There is no consensus today. For example, in the event of an accident who will be responsible: the manufacturer of the vehicle, the software, the driver?
- Economic accessibility: to become more widespread, the autonomous vehicle will have to demonstrate its economic relevance in a global logic. As with every innovation, this remains the key to establishing itself as a sustainable solution.
What are the advantages/levers for autonomous vehicles?
- Human : Today there is a real shortage of heavy goods vehicle drivers, it is a profession under pressure. Although having made significant progress, security and arduous conditions are still a real issue. In the most dangerous driving environments (mines, etc.) this will be real progress.
- Economic : the “human cost” (driver's salary, training, supervision, etc.) represents one of the most important items in the cost of transport. It is also estimated that the consumption of an autonomous vehicle should ultimately be lower than that of a human being. There is no restriction in terms of regulatory time for machines. The use of the vehicle can be pushed to its maximum potential.
- A powerful ecosystem with financial means: the economic stakes are enormous and an entire sector has been formed around manufacturers, publishers of software, content, online services, infrastructure, connected objects.
To conclude, a smart person is anyone who can predict when autonomous vehicles will be a reality in our daily lives. A real boon, the autonomous vehicle market could represent more than 500 billion euros by 2035, but there are nevertheless still many obstacles to overcome. Economic and social accessibility are still very complex before arriving at a model that can be addressed to all. COVID19 also shows the vulnerability of our organizations today and the crucial and even vital importance of the world of transport. It will surely accelerate awareness of the importance of the role played by drivers and the fact that the opportunity to have autonomous vehicles may ultimately represent.
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